7 of probably the most ludicrous claims from the Cybercab launch

Tesla’s “We, Robot” event showcased three main products. We had been launched to the Cybercab, Tesla’s totally self-driving autonomous taxi. Elon Musk additionally unveiled the Robovan, which is a Cybercab, solely greater and weirder-looking. And Elon completed the present by bringing in a military of scary Optimus robots that may someday play board video games together with your children and wipe down your kitchen island.

For a person with quite a bit to say, Elon’s supply was low power, however regardless of the muted presentation, there have been some absolute gems to be discovered. That is as a result of Elon managed to throw in some really outrageous claims all through the presentation that lasted beneath an hour. Listed below are seven of Elon Musk’s most ridiculous claims throughout the Cybercab launch.

1 The Optimus robotic would be the greatest product ever of any variety

I feel the wheel might need one thing to say about that

Tesla

Let’s begin with one of the crucial ludicrous claims of all. This one is so huge that it must be quoted precisely. Elon Musk, with a straight face, acknowledged the next about his Optimus robotic:

“I feel this would be the greatest product ever, of any variety.”

Let’s simply put that into context. There are some critical contenders already for probably the most important product ever of any variety. Two of the three merchandise showcased on the We, Robotic occasion used wheels, and the wheel absolutely must be in with a shout, proper? In keeping with Elon, his robotic that may barely stroll with out trying prefer it’s about to fall over, shall be greater than the wheel, a product that has been used for 1000’s of years. Positive it can, Elon.

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2 Each one of many eight billion individuals of Earth will need an Optimus buddy

Do we actually desire a robotic military of billions?

Tesla

Elon additionally claims that “each one of many eight billion individuals of Earth will need an Optimus buddy.” Actually, some might even need two. That is regardless that the Optimus robotic is more likely to value $30,000 when constructed at scale. I am positive in the event you requested somebody at the moment residing in a struggle zone or affected by famine what they might most prefer to spend $30,000 on, the reply would undoubtedly be a daunting humanoid robotic.

There is a quite simple technique to show that Elon’s assertion is not true. I can let you know proper now I do not need one. There isn’t any approach that I wish to personal a humanoid robotic constructed by an organization that may’t even make a workable truck. Having loved the various hilarious posts on r/CyberStuck on Reddit, there is not any approach that a minimum of one in every of these Optimus robots is not going to blow up, catch hearth, or begin telling you to place down your weapons and that you’ve got 20 seconds to conform, just like the ED-209 in RoboCop.

If I do not need an Optimus buddy, which I do not, then that declare that eight billion individuals will need one cannot be true; it will likely be 7,999,999,999 at most.

3 There’s an 80% likelihood that digital tremendous intelligence will not be dangerous

60% of the time, it really works each time

Terminator

This was a throwaway remark, but it surely’s one which Elon has made earlier than. In keeping with him, there’s an 80% likelihood digital tremendous intelligence shall be a drive for good. Sadly, the flip facet of which means that there is a one in 5 likelihood that AI will turn out to be self-aware and launch nukes towards us.

It is unclear the place Elon has pulled these figures from. He might have requested Grok AI to determine it out, so it is nearly definitely extremely correct. If what he says is true, then for the love of God, shut down all of the AI chatbots proper now as a result of a one-in-five likelihood of AI destroying us all appears worryingly excessive. By no means inform me the percentages.

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4 Anybody will be capable to have any services they need

Who’s paying for the facility, Elon?

Tesla

There appears to be lots of people in the intervening time saying that know-how will usher in an age of unimaginable prosperity. Solely just lately, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, the person behind ChatGPT, claimed in a weblog submit that “sooner or later, everybody’s lives will be higher than anybody’s life is now.” Elon is providing an analogous view of the longer term; with Optimus robots doing all the roles for us, it can usher in a brand new daybreak the place “anybody will be capable to have any services they need; it will likely be an age of abundance.”

The flaw on this plan is that even with robots doing all of the work totally free, services nonetheless require uncooked supplies and power, each of which value cash. It is unlikely that robots changing people getting paid peanuts to make your iPhone in a manufacturing facility in China will imply you’ll purchase the iPhone 19 for $10. It is fascinating that every one the those who appear to be saying that tech will deliver a brand new daybreak of prosperity are additionally those promoting that tech. Possibly it can transform true — for them, a minimum of.

5 Your autonomous automotive shall be used ten instances extra usually than your present automotive

The thought is sweet, however the figures do not add up

Tesla

This one is just a little contentious as a result of, to some extent, the declare has the potential to be true. Nonetheless, the numbers simply do not appear so as to add up. Elon factors out that the typical particular person makes use of their automotive for about 10 hours out of the 168 hours in every week. If a automotive can drive itself, then it might be used as a lot as ten instances greater than automobiles are at the moment, making your automotive ten instances extra worthwhile.

At first look, this appears so as to add up. In case your automotive can drive itself, then whenever you’re not utilizing it, you possibly can put it to work as a taxi, driving round and taking individuals the place they should go, and incomes you some cash whilst you sleep or work. It does not appear unreasonable that your automotive might be used for 100 hours within the week on this approach.

There are a couple of points right here, nevertheless. Firstly, in the event you’ve spent $30,000 on a self-driving automotive, would you like complete strangers driving round in it for 90 hours every week? Even in the event you do, there’s an issue with demand. You let individuals use your automotive as a taxi for 90 hours every week, no downside. Your neighbor does the identical. So does the neighbor on the opposite facet. Three homes alone can provide almost 300 hours of rides every week. It does not take lengthy earlier than the obtainable hours from all of those autonomous automobiles vastly outstrip the demand, which means that your automotive will find yourself sitting idle in your storage in spite of everything.

If by some means demand matches provide, the issues are even worse. If each automotive is used for ten instances as a lot as it’s at the moment, then the roads may have ten instances the quantity of visitors — some utopian future.

6 Uber drivers will turn out to be automotive shepherds with flocks of automobiles

If one Uber driver has 20 automobiles, 19 Uber drivers are out of a job

Tesla/Pocket-Lint

In the event you’re an Uber driver fearful about shedding your supply of earnings, don’t be concerned, Elon has you lined. He envisions that at the moment’s Uber drivers will turn out to be tomorrow’s automotive shepherds. That is proper, Uber drivers sooner or later may have fleets of 10-20 automobiles that they are going to take care of like a shepherd tends to his flock.

By no means thoughts {that a} fleet of 20 Cybercabs would set you again round $600,000, cash that the typical Uber driver is unlikely to have mendacity round. As soon as once more, it is a difficulty of demand. If an Uber driver at the moment goes from one automotive to a fleet of 20, then they’re doing the work of 19 different Uber drivers, which means the opposite 19 are successfully put out of enterprise. It isn’t attainable for each driver at the moment to run a fleet of 20 automobiles and nonetheless have sufficient demand to make it financially viable.

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7 The Cybercab shall be prepared earlier than 2027

Tesla’s observe file says in any other case

Tesla

I did not assume any declare might be extra unlikely than Elon’s scary robots being the most important product ever, however he managed to prime it with an much more unlikely declare. That is proper, Elon stated that the Cybercab shall be prepared “earlier than 2027.” Let’s check out latest historical past. In 2014, Elon stated that the Cybertruck can be prepared in 4-5 years. 2018 got here and went, however no Cybertruck. 2019, after we ought to have been capable of begin shopping for them, was when the primary idea Cybertruck was unveiled. It wasn’t till the very finish of 2023 that the primary Cybertrucks rolled precariously out of Tesla’s showrooms.

The Cybertruck is mainly only a huge automotive with a hideous-looking physique, hardly an enormous technological leap. The Cybercab goals to be a state-of-the-art, totally self-driving autonomous car that should bear rigorous security testing earlier than individuals go anyplace close to one. The probabilities of that occuring earlier than 2027 are slim to none.